UPDATED: Heavy rain eyes Minnesota this weekend - KMSP-TV

UPDATED: Heavy rain eyes Minnesota this weekend

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METEOROLOGIST STEVE FRAZIER METEOROLOGIST STEVE FRAZIER
As we get closer to the weekend it still looks likely that some parts of Minnesota will see some heavy rain. A little good news is that it now looks like the rain will make a quicker exit, leaving Monday in the clear. Our "loser" low continues its track East, combine that with abundant moisture and extra heat pulled in on Southeasterly wind, and the chance to ring out moisture over Minnesota is great. Once the warm front comes through Saturday, we will definitely notice some sultry summer like conditions, primed for the cold front arrival on Sunday. Severe weather is also in the cards. Our first shot at stronger storms will be Saturday afternoon with the warm front and then late Sunday with the cold front.

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Below are two model runs for the total rainfall through the weekend. DARK GREEN: 1.5" / YELLOW 2" / ORANGE 2.5" / DARKER ORANGE 3".


GFS MODEL ACCUMULATED RAIN THIS WEEKEND


NAM MODEL ACCUMULATED RAIN THIS WEEKEND


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The taps will once again turn on this weekend as another juicy storm system with possible heavy rain takes aim on the Upper Midwest. So far this June we have seen 10.25 inches of rain and we are just 3/4 of an inch away from being the wettest June ever in the Twin Cities.




So far for 2014 we have had almost as much rainfall as we had for the entire year last year.

RAINFALL JAN-DEC 2013  32.77"

RAINFALL JAN-JUN 2014   25.32"

Its a record that we don't need to break. Also, with a lot of rivers cresting this week, its a rainfall that can actually set us back in the battle against the flooding.

The model below shows the big ole "Loser Low" slowly approaching from the West. The actually low will stay in Southern Canada, but the southerly wind flow ahead of the low will bring up lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, this moisture will get wrung out across the Upper Midwest.



Below is the GFS (Global Forecast System) model on how much rain is expect to accumulate through Monday night. The orange to red shaded areas indicate a possibility of 2" - 4" inches of rain.



Now, look at the whole picture. The picture below is the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) of just how much rainfall is expected across the Upper Midwest through Monday night. Wow, some areas well over 3 inches.




Not only will it be wet, but it will be humid. This system will pump in the muggies. Check out the forecast dewpoints for Saturday and Tuesday. Those gray areas show that dewpoints in Minnesota and Wisconsin will climb into the 70s. Now, that is one sticky situation.





As you can see for Tuesday, those gray shaded areas turn to green, indicating dewpoints in the 50s, much more comfortable. However, that is a cold front giving us that break, so expect a chance of severe weather in exchange for that relief.

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