The chances for severe weather return to the area again Monday after a very active weekend with highs winds toppling trees and power lines on Saturday. More high winds are possible along with large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes as we head through Monday and Monday night. Of course with the ground very saturated, flash flooding will also be concern in areas that receive heavy rain.
So we always want to know exactly when the storms will move in and who will get the worst of it. Unfortunately, in the weather world, that is impossible to determine for sure. But we can look at the current set up, along with radar trends and high resolution forecasting models that can help depict where some of the worst weather will end up. The Storm Prediction Center has the most confidence in a large scale outbreak just off to our south in parts of Iowa and eastern Nebraska where a moderate risk exists.
And while the components of severe weather do appear to be favoring Iowa right now, we aren’t exactly out of the woods because recent indications show that Minnesota could get a bunch of storms too. Here is one of those high resolution computer models I was talking about. It shows the possibility of widespread severe weather in central and southern Minnesota as all of these storms head across the area with the image below the forecast radar picture at 8pm this evening.
First off… look where all of the storms are located… pretty much all in Minnesota. Second, notice what I put in a square black box. That is a bowing segment right over the metro. A bowing line segment is a big indication of very strong winds in a thunderstorm. Now, I am absolutely NOT saying that tonight will unfold exactly like this. However what this does is indicate to us that this is a POSSIBLE outcome and severe weather could make it as far north as central Minnesota. So while Iowa appears to be the better candidate for the dangerous storms, this proves that we need to stay sky aware as we head through the evening.