A few weeks ago we were stuck in a rut that kept us under the clouds and rain for an entire week. Now, as we approach the big holiday weekend, we are bracing for another rut, but this time it will be a good rut. High pressure building into the Upper Midwest this week will linger and slowly expand to cover a large chunk of the Eastern US. This means GREAT weather and gradually warming temperatures over our part of the country. Below are the GFS Model forecast maps showing the high building in this week and then growing in coverage by Memorial Day.
WEDNESDAY - HIGH BUILDS ACROSS MN
SUNDAY - HIGH COVERS EASTERN US
This high pressure will not only circulate in warmer temperature but it will also pull in Gulf moisture on the back side of it. Below is the forecast model for dew points come this weekend. The gray area from the Gulf to Western Minnesota is the flow of moisture expected by this weekend. This added moisture will create more instability, resulting in scattered showers and storms, starting out in Western Minnesota this weekend and moving into the metro by late in the weekend. Hence, the shower chances you will see in the extended forecast for the latter half of the holiday weekend.
SATURDAY - MOISTURE STREAM (GRAY)
On the flip side, the Western half of the country will be stuck under an upper low, and will spend a week dodging showers and storms. However, this is good news, as the cloudy and wet weather will really help out the drought across California and other parts of the Southwestern US. Below are the forecast model maps showing that upper low and just how slow it moves, blocked by our great weather high.