Southerly winds, and a fetch of moisture that stretches all the way into the Gulf of Mexico will bring warmer temperatures, plenty of humidity, and even our first chances for severe weather as we head into midweek.
The four key ingredients you need for severe weather are heat, moisture, lift, and shear.
The amount of lift and shear with this particular storm are still in question, however, there is no doubt that there will be plenty of heat and moisture moving northward. Temperatures will start to rise with a flow out of the southwest where temperatures have been in the triple digits the last couple of days in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas… so there’s your heat. The moisture is returning as well.
Check out the forecast dewpoints (level of moisture in the atmosphere when compared to the temperature), for Tuesday and then again on Thursday in the images below.
You can see that the first one, dewpoints are not all that high, although much higher than they are early on Monday as they rise back into the 40’s, but not exactly a lot of moisture to work with. But by Thursday afternoon, the dewpoints have soared to the low to mid 60’s! It will actually feel straight up humid!!
Now, the level of shear and lift will be in question, although with a warm front hanging around the area (provides both shear, which is change of wind speed with direction and height, as well as lift) components are coming together for at least isolated severe storm activity. This is why the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted our area for a slight risk of severe weather on Wednesday and Wednesday night, and highlighted our area AGAIN for Thursday and Thursday night as you see in the images below.