More April snow in the cards? - KMSP-TV

More April snow in the cards?

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Meteorologist Cody Matz Meteorologist Cody Matz

I know that the last thing anyone wants to hear is about snow, but there might be more on the horizon for parts of Minnesota come Wednesday. Now the tough part with this storm is it's looking a lot like the last one… meaning that temperatures will be very close to freezing AND the precipitation could go either way for many spots. We also have to take a few other things into consideration when talking about accumulating April snow; the far higher sun angle makes it VERY tough to accumulate snow during the day time, so will it fall during the day or at night… the warm soil temperatures will inhibit accumulation, especially on the roads. But a lot like the last one, there is potential for a thin band of heavy snow setting up somewhere in Minnesota and Wisconsin. So if it happens, where will it land??

Let's dive into this….

So, the forecasting models continue to trend slightly further north than what they originally showed a couple days ago. That's great news if you live in the metro because (for the moment at least) it looks like mostly a rain event with some snow possible late Wednesday afternoon and evening. And as I mentioned above, if it happens to be falling during the daytime, actual accumulation is far harder to come by. So the best places to get a few inches of accumulating snow look to be north of the metro. Here is what the models are currently showing…

Now, before you freak out and run for the hills saying we are going to get a foot of snow I want to remind you of one undeniable fact: these are COMPUTER models. They see black and white and not in shades of gray. They DO NOT account for the higher sun angle of April and that the ground is now unfrozen, and in some cases upwards of 40°. So I wanted to show you these just to give you an idea of where the heaviest snow could fall and not necessarily what those snow totals would be. As you see… the models are fairly consistent with some sort of band of snow setting up north of the metro from about Alexandria and Bemidji through Brainerd, Pine City, Duluth and then into northern Wisconsin. There is no doubt that a band of 4 to 8 inches in these areas is a possibility if all the cards come together, but certainly not a guarantee. The metro is once again on the fringe, and if things hold the way they are, most spots will see little if any overall accumulation, and even then it would only be on the grassy surfaces.

So what do other bright meteorological minds think? Well here is the snowfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center showing the probability of getting 2, 4, and 8 inches over a 48 hour period ending Thursday morning.

A pretty good swath of land with probabilities of more than 30% for at least 2 inches of snow range for much of central and northern Minnesota, including the metro. But areas from Alexandria to Bemidji, St. Cloud, and Duluth have upwards of a 60% chance of getting more than 2 inches of snow. The same areas have a 20-40% probability of getting at least 8 inches of snow. Yikes! So I'd say that 4 to 8" band of snow that I was talking about earlier is a real possibility north of the metro. Remember though, this would need near perfect conditions… I guess we will have to wait and see. Stay warm!!

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