Atlantic hurricane season forecast shows below normal activity - KMSP-TV

2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast shows below normal activity

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Meteorologist Cody Matz Meteorologist Cody Matz

Colorado State University has issued their yearly prediction for the activity expected in the Atlantic basin and they have determined that it will likely be a below average year for tropical storms. 

The forecast provided shows that 9 tropical storms are expected with 5 of those becoming hurricanes and only one of those becoming a major hurricane. This is down about 30% of what would be considered a normal year. 

So why the low prediction? Well, it has to do with our friend El Nino. As it stands, there is a very good chance that an El Nino pattern will develop over the summer. This pattern is unfavorable for substantial tropical development because stronger upper level winds are more predominant during El Nino periods which will often tear storms apart before they can really get organized. This doesn't always work out that way, but there is a far higher probability of these conditions in an El Nino year.

So how accurate are these forecasts? Well honestly, not real accurate. If you remember last year, it was predicted to be an above average hurricane season. Well, in reality, it turned out to be one of the quietest seasons in history. 

But in most cases, the predictions are a little more accurate than the utter failure of last year. CSU is often able to estimate an overall pattern determining whether it will be an above or below average season. Past that though, results have been less than ideal. 

So take it for what it is...just an indication showing below average activity is a more likely solution to the hurricane season in 2014.

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