Atlantic hurricane season forecast shows below normal activity - KMSP-TV

2014 Atlantic hurricane season forecast shows below normal activity

Posted: Updated:
Meteorologist Cody Matz Meteorologist Cody Matz

Colorado State University has issued their yearly prediction for the activity expected in the Atlantic basin and they have determined that it will likely be a below average year for tropical storms. 

The forecast provided shows that 9 tropical storms are expected with 5 of those becoming hurricanes and only one of those becoming a major hurricane. This is down about 30% of what would be considered a normal year. 

So why the low prediction? Well, it has to do with our friend El Nino. As it stands, there is a very good chance that an El Nino pattern will develop over the summer. This pattern is unfavorable for substantial tropical development because stronger upper level winds are more predominant during El Nino periods which will often tear storms apart before they can really get organized. This doesn't always work out that way, but there is a far higher probability of these conditions in an El Nino year.

So how accurate are these forecasts? Well honestly, not real accurate. If you remember last year, it was predicted to be an above average hurricane season. Well, in reality, it turned out to be one of the quietest seasons in history. 

But in most cases, the predictions are a little more accurate than the utter failure of last year. CSU is often able to estimate an overall pattern determining whether it will be an above or below average season. Past that though, results have been less than ideal. 

So take it for what it is...just an indication showing below average activity is a more likely solution to the hurricane season in 2014.

  • Most Popular StoriesMost Popular StoriesMore>>

  • Beautiful brows by day, gun range by night

    Beautiful brows by day, gun range by night

    Wednesday, July 23 2014 12:51 PM EDT2014-07-23 16:51:05 GMT
    Krystal Dunn is ambitious -- she opened up Brow Bella salon at age 24. By day, she pampers guests by shaping their eyebrows amid other delightful spa services, but by night, she’s a competitive shooter.
    Krystal Dunn is ambitious -- she opened up Brow Bella salon at age 24. By day, she pampers guests by shaping their eyebrows amid other delightful spa services, but by night, she’s a competitive shooter.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Somali-American elders make citizen's arrest of suspected recruiter

    EXCLUSIVE: Somali-American elders make citizen's arrest of suspected recruiter

    Wednesday, July 23 2014 10:20 AM EDT2014-07-23 14:20:31 GMT
    The motto of the Department of Homeland Security is "see something, say something" -- and a group of Somali-Americans did just that when they thought a man was trying to recruit teens to fight in Syria.
    The motto of the Department of Homeland Security is "see something, say something" -- and a group of Somali-Americans did just that when they thought a man was trying to recruit teens to fight in Syria.
  • Tiny Target now open in Dinkytown

    Tiny Target now open in Dinkytown

    Wednesday, July 23 2014 9:58 AM EDT2014-07-23 13:58:36 GMT
    Target's tiniest offspring is now open -- you can now shop at TargetExpress, a 20,000 sq. ft. store in Dinkytown near the University of Minnesota campus.
    Target's tiniest offspring is now open -- you can now shop at TargetExpress, a 20,000 sq. ft. store in Dinkytown near the University of Minnesota campus.
Widgets Magazine
Powered by WorldNow

KMSP-TV
11358 Viking Drive
Eden Prairie, MN 55344

Phone: (952) 944-9999
Fax: (952) 942-0455

Didn't find what you were looking for?
All content © Copyright 2000 - 2014 Fox Television Stations, Inc. and Worldnow. All Rights Reserved.
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Ad Choices