Here comes the biggest storm of the winter season for parts of the area, likely including the metro. Here is the very latest with this storm…
It continues its further west trend. When forecasting, one tool we use is to look at the overall movement of the predicted storm over time. Early Wednesday, the heaviest snow bands were lining up 100-150 miles east of the metro. Over the last 24 hours though, the trend of the models have taken the heavy snow further west, and is now including parts of the metro in the heaviest snow bands with much of the east metro likely to get to the 10" mark, with local areas over a foot possible. We have the very latest model runs below.
All of the models now have the entire metro getting at least 6" of snow, with one even showing widespread totals of a foot.
Now, when we are this close to the storm, we can look at what we call "High Resolution" models, or models that handle local variations much better than the broad based long range models we typically use. Here is their output.
A pretty wide range, but still shows anywhere from 6-12 inches across the metro with total amounts coming down to snowfall rate and overall ratio (how fluffy it is). Still, the best chances for the heftier totals will be in the east metro.
Since more heads are better than fewer heads, let's peek at what other meteorologists are seeing for this storm. The following images show the probability of snow exceeding 2 inches, 4 inches, and 8 inches from the Weather Prediction Center…
At the moment, the entire metro has at least a 95% chance of 2+ inches of snow, with an 80-95% chance of 4+ inches of snow, and a 60-80% chance of 8+ inches of snow. So if you are betting on this storm, there are your lines!