UPDATED 3:00 PM WEDNESDAY 2/19/14
Our Thursday storm is still on track for the Upper Midwest and the FOX 9 view area, but the exactly track is not quite certain as of this late hour. Here are just 2 forecast models and their position of the storm, the big red L on the maps, by Thursday evening.+
MODEL 1 STORM FARTHER WEST MEANS MORE SNOW
MODEL 2 STORM FARTHER EAST MEANS LESS SNOW
Here is a look at the data for what the metro can expect from this storm. The image below shoes this information non graphically. look at the time with 00Z being 7 PM Thursday followed by 3 hour increments. You can see that we start off with some sleet between midnight and 3 am and then blowing snow Thursday afternoon. You can also see that the temperature falls from 34° around noon Thursday to 10° by noon Friday.
The track can make a huge difference so stay tuned everyone. Frazier
"Thundersnow" is also a possibility to our southeast. Check it out:
So far this winter season the metro is about 23% above average for snowfall and it looks like we will add to that total come Thursday. Here is a sneak peak at the system that will bring snow and wind to parts of the FOX 9 viewing area come Thursday.
The area of low pressure is just to the southeast of Minnesota. This will put us on the colder side of the storm and cuts back on the wintry mix we earlier expected.
Not to get critical here, but I do want to mention the critical thickness forecast models. The critical thickness is really critical when it comes to determining the rain/snow line and the odds of all snow versus all rain, or something in between. Below are the critical thickness lines for This Thursday. You can see that the rain snow line on all levels of measure are off to our southeast, therefore we can be assured of mostly snow, but those lines can move our way and bring a wintry mix with them. The track is important so stay tuned.
A closer look at the rain snow lines well to our southeast on Thursday. As a general rule of thumb, if we are north of these line, it is below freezing all the way to the surface.
Now that we know we will mostly have snow on the present track, here is a look at what a few models are predicting as far as snow totals. First, lets look at the overall accumulated snowfall through Friday. Its hard to see, but the light blue and yellow across the metro is 2" to 4" and the darker green off to our southeast is about 6" Keep in mind that dark green color is in the region where a bit of rain could mix in, as we learned above, so those actual snow totals may not reach 6". Also, if the track shifts, so will our snow totals.
Below is a graph of what all the models are forecasting for the metro come Thursday. The models are in agreement that for the metro, we are looking at snow totals in the 2" to 4" range. However, a few models give us a lot more, indicating that the storm track is very important, so stay tuned.
I hope you enjoyed the warm up because behind this systems comes another shot of cold. Check out the forecast models for temperatures. That purple pink blob off to the northwest is the cold air mass to end the workweek.
As you can see the teens, and eventually the subzero temps, are on the way back. Stay tuned.
We would love to see your weather photos! Email them to Photos@Fox9.com . Also I hope you will LIKE my Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/#!/SteveFrazierFox9Kmsp and follow me on Twitter at @FrazierFox9. Thanks for watching! FRAZIER
Read more: SNOW SO FAR: Adding Up The Flakes - KMSP-TV http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/story/24754401/snow-so-far-adding-up-the-flakes#ixzz2tiXK1HdT