The metro is below average in the snowfall category this winter season, but we will be adding to it Monday night and early Tuesday as a clipper system dives out of Canada and through parts of the Upper Midwest. Snow and plenty of wind will accompany our storm starting after the evening rush Monday and extending through the midday hours Tuesday. Not a big winter storm by any means as overall snow accumulations will be pretty light… but it's the wind trailing the snow that could become the bigger issue as whatever falls will be blowing around through much of the day Tuesday. As for totals, the metro appears to be the target for some of the heftier totals at the moment. By hefty though, we are talking 2 or 3 inches. We like to always see what other experts in the field are looking at as many heads are always better than fewer heads. Here is a look at the probability of getting at least 2 inches of snow and at least 4 inches of snow issued by the Weather Prediction Center.
You can see that the heaviest band appears to be moving right through the metro with at least an 80% chance of receiving 2 or more inches of snow. But chances dwindle quickly for higher amounts as there is only about a 20% chance of any locations getting at least 4 inches. So at the moment, I would say 90% of metro locales will be in that 1" to 3" category by the end of the storm. However, this will be pretty tough to measure accurately because of the wind, so some of the "measured" totals may be spread a little further apart because of drifting.
But like any other storm, expected snow totals are far from a guarantee as computer forecasting models swing wildly with their totals. Here are 2 different ends of the spectrum. The first showing the low end, followed by the high end.
The first images shows pretty lackluster totals with a band of an inch or two falling along and just north of I-94 with next to nothing falling in southern Minnesota. Contrast that with the higher end of the spectrum with a wider band of 2 to 5 inch totals across central and southern Minnesota as well as western WI with metro locations on the higher end of that, generally 4 or even 5 inches. This is the main reason for the "in between" forecast as it is tough to decipher if either of these will actually be correct. Often times, the computers compensate too much in one direction or another leaving the "in between" numbers the closest to the actual result.