A Look Ahead through the Epic Cooling Month of November - KMSP-TV

A Look Ahead through the Epic Cooling Month of November

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Some may argue that October is a larger cooling month than November, but the road ahead goes from comfortably cool to just plain cold. October average highs go from the mid 60's to the low 50's, but that temperature plummet continues in November going from an average high of 50 all the way down to the freeze mark by the first of December. This basically turns hoody and long sleeve weather into bundle up or you might get frost bite weather. This is also the unofficial start to the snow season for the state. Yes, we can and do get snow in October, but it is usually light and fairly rare, but November is a whole different topic with at least one snow storm likely before we get through the month. But as you can see in the graphic on your right, the amount of snow can swing widely from year to year with almost nothing falling one year and then the very next we get over a foot. But if you round out all these yearly swings, we average just about 6 inches during the month. So is there any on the way??

Well, certainly not for the weekend as temperatures will sit at or slightly above average, but by the middle of next week, there is certainly a shot of some snow as a large storm system appears in the Upper Midwest. Too far away to know anything for certain, but it's something we will keep our eyes on. So what does November have in store for us??

The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the next couple of weeks with their forecasting skills taking note of a couple different weather systems that will likely keep the western U.S. cold and the eastern U.S. warm, and put the central U.S. right in the middle. Not to mention, a few heavy rain events may greet parts of the southern and central Plains and some heavy snow to parts of the Rockies. So let's break it down. Here are 2 images for temperatures with the first showing the probability of temperatures above or below average from 6 to 10 days out followed by 8 to 14 days out.

You can see that the probabilities are pretty good that the west coast will be below average and the east coast will be above average with the central U.S. stuck in between, or rounding out the first half of November right where they should.

Now precipitation… here is the probability of above or below average precipitation from 6 to 10 days out followed by 8 to 14 days out.

Generally speaking, the forecasters at the CPC think that there is a higher probability for above average precipitation across the northern tier of states with a below average probability for parts of the southern and central U.S.

They also highlight what would be considered "major" weather events in the 3 to 7 day timeframe and then 8 to 14 day timeframe. They only highlight these events when there is a reasonable amount of confidence that they will actually occur.

Very active 3 to 7 day period with bouts of heavy rain across the central U.S., plenty of cold in the western U.S. and some heavy snow pockets for portions of the Rockies. They seem to be less confident further out with just a cold pocket highlighted in the northern Rockies for the 8 to 14 day time period.

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