First snowflakes of the season may greet you this weekend - KMSP-TV

First snowflakes of the season may greet you this weekend

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MINNEAPOLIS (KMSP) -

As I am sure you have heard by now through the grapevine (because this info seems to spread like wild fire), some of those lovely snowflakes could be making a return to our state as we head through your weekend.

As with all October snowfalls, because it is so early in the season, snow events are always borderline because it is tough to get some really cold air into the area this time of year. So a single degree can make the difference between getting all rain or getting some snow.

So how do we determine that snow will fall??

Well, there are a number of avenues that we use, but the most obvious are the forecasting computer models that show us the snow. So here are a few different venues pointing us in the direction of some snowfall over the weekend.

So this is what we call a "high resolution" model. This shows precipitation type for anything falling in the area that the model covers. As you see below...areas of snow can be found mainly north of the metro with Twin Cities locations right on the cusp of the rain/snow line.

This particular situation would bring a blob (a very technical term) of precipitation through the area… the timeframe shown above is midday Sunday. If this precipitation were truly this dense and all snow north of the metro, then an inch or even a touch more would be likely on the grassy surfaces in those areas.

So where is this potential swath of snow?
We look to another website that shows us the snowfall potential.

This forecasting model takes a swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow for areas just north of the metro from about Alexandria through St. Cloud, Pine City, and into Rice Lake, Wisconsin. If the snowfall rate is intense enough, this outcome is not out of the question.

Another way to look at it is check on what some of the other experts in the field are forecasting. This is a snowfall probability forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. This shows the probability of experiencing at least 1 inch of snow from early Sunday morning through Sunday night.

This shows that areas north of the metro have a 40 to 70 percent chance of getting at least 1 inch of snow with the metro in the 20 to 40 percent category. Still not convinced that a chance of snow is heading our way?? Well just wait and see, but don't be shocked if you look out your window on Sunday and see a little white flakes falling out of the sky. Enjoy!

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