Beneficial Rain on the Way and a Chilly Second Half of October - KMSP-TV

Beneficial Rain on the Way and a Chilly Second Half of October

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Another large storm system has its sights set on the Upper Midwest which will likely bring many areas some beneficial rain. With much of the area still under moderate to severe drought conditions, some good rainfall before the ground freezes is great news because it will help plants, trees, and crops thrive as the soil starts to thaw in the spring. Not to mention, things are just plain dry around here right now so some rain would be very beneficial. Pinpointing the areas that will see the most rainfall is tough to do at the moment, but it does look like this next system will be large enough to provide the entire area with some much needed rain. Current track takes the heaviest rain through the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota where more than 2 inches could fall. The metro area looks to be on the eastern edge of some of the heavier rain with totals more likely in and around an inch. Here is the forecast for rainfall from Sunday through Wednesday morning from the Weather Prediction Center.

Now this rainfall will also be accompanied by much cooler temperatures. Long over are the days where it rains at 70 or 75 degrees. Now that we are well into October, it becomes a much cooler rain. Temperatures will likely stick in the 50's and even low 60's in the areas where rain is not occurring Monday and even early Tuesday. But once the rain begins… expect numbers to hover near 50 and possibly sit in the mid to upper 40's.

As we all know though, this is just the beginning and our current forecast really highlights that. The month of October started out unseasonably warm with 6 days of highs in the 70's and even more in the 60's, but the next couple weeks could be highlighted with temperatures well below average. Here is the current forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. These show the probability of experiencing above, normal, or below normal temperatures. The darker the color, the better the chances for that type of temperature. The first image is for the 6-10 day period (October 18-22) and the second image is for the 8-14 day period (October 20-26).

You can see that we appear to have much better chances for below normal temperatures over the next couple of weeks as a trough will move in and stay across much of the central parts of the country. You are able to see that on our computer forecasting models. You can watch the colder air dive into the Upper Midwest by comparing the 850mb temperatures (5000 feet above ground level) from Monday to Saturday.

Notice how the colors look drastically colder as temperatures fall some 30 degrees from Monday to Saturday afternoon. This will allow temperatures to fall at the surface as well with highs falling into the 40's next weekend and possibly even in the upper 30's... yikes! This isn't a guarantee yet considering its still several days away, but is a sign of what could be on the horizon, so enjoy the pleasant temperatures on Sunday while they last!

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