Severe Weather chances shift South, Rainy Through the Weekend - KMSP-TV

Severe Weather chances shift South, Rainy Through the Weekend

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As this large area of low pressure continues to wind up and strengthen as it heads our way, showers and storms can still be expected area wide as we go through Friday night and early Saturday. Some of these storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. However, the warm front has been progressing north slower than anticipated. This will keep the clouds around here, and allow breaks to form in parts of Iowa and Nebraska as seen in the satellite image below.

This allows temperatures to rise which adds fuel to the fire, especially when juicy air is in place with dewpoints well into the 60's. But don't let your guard down, because we are still on the fringe of what could be a very dangerous area of weather through tonight. Here is the afternoon outlook by the Storm Prediction Center.

They shifted the moderate risk area further south to stay in portions of northern and western Iowa, but all of southern Minnesota is still in the slight risk area with the Metro now completely out of the risk area, but sitting on the edge of it.

What our current thinking is that storms will fire up sometime late today across Nebraska and Iowa. These storms will have a northeasterly movement and eventually cross the border into Minnesota as the evening progresses. Now as these potentially severe storms move into a less favorable environment for them to survive, they will likely weaken to below severe limits and just become a heavy rain producer. The biggest question is, how long will it take for them to weaken? The answer is unknown since every storm is a little different and can act differently even in the same environment. This is why the slight risk is in southern Minnesota.

Now, how will this play out? Well, there are a couple different solutions showing up on our computer forecasting models. One has isolated (what we call discrete) thunderstorms developing in Iowa with some leftover stuff for southern and central Minnesota as we head late into the evening as seen below.

But another solution shows a line of thunderstorms developing in eastern Nebraska late today and rolling into central and eastern Minnesota around Midnight.

Both of these scenarios are quite possible, so we will have to wait and see how these storms develop and progress. Stay tuned to Fox9 for the latest.

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