Hang on for the Ride, the Ups and Downs Continue - KMSP-TV

Hang on for the Ride, the Ups and Downs Continue

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As we continue toward the Autumnal Equinox this weekend, September will be living up to its name as wild temperatures swings and a more active pattern continue right into the official start to fall. This month is known for its back and forth swing of temperatures as shorter days and a lower sun angle lead to significant cooling in the Arctic. This gives way to some large cool air surges southward as the colder air begins to invade much of the Northern Hemisphere as we head back into the winter season. But Southwest flow kicks in on Tuesday allowing temperatures to start rising again for the middle of the week as seen on this 850mb temperature analysis by one of our many computer forecasting models.  These are temperatures at about 5000 feet.  We use these because they are often not affected by surface heating from the sun and show us the true potential temperature for the surface.

Take note of the much warmer colors of the orange and red variety as we look at Wednesday afternoon when our warmest temperatures are expected over the next week. With the warmer temperatures comes the threat for rain though (great for the drought) as the first of what could be several waves moves into the Upper Midwest. You can see the area of low pressure labeled as the giant "L" in the jet stream forecast picture below.

This goes by and another significant cool down is possible with a large swath of cold air surging southward behind the system. This will lead to much cooler conditions come the end of the week and to start your weekend.

But, this could be short lived 2 more waves are possible from the weekend into next week. The first of these two waves could affect the area as early as Sunday and could be a little further south and stronger than our wave this week.

After this wave goes by, the third and possibly the largest of the three waves moves in for the middle of next week.

Even though this wave looks rather strong, the computer models can be somewhat unreliable more than a few days out with large variability from day to day on what it is expecting. But the fact that it "sees" this wave coming is indicative of an active pattern. However, this wave may not end up as strong or in this general position. In fact, it could go either way ending up stronger leading to more widespread precipitation or ending up weaker leading to very little change. But before that happens, we have to get through the next week first.  Here is the forecast precipitation for the U.S. courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center (WPC).

Rain expected in much needed areas of the central U.S. with a half to three quarters of an inch possible across much of our area through the weekend.  So signs sure pointing to an active end to the month of September and this doesn't even include what could be the largest wave next week.  Stay tuned!

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