Minnesota's constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage is leaning toward failure as of June, a five-point swing from a February Public Policy Polling survey when voters leaned toward passage by a 48/44 percent margin.
The percentage of voters now favoring the proposed amendment sits at 43 percent as 49 percent of voters oppose it.
Independent voters seem to be behind the shift. Previously supporting the amendment by a 50 to 40 spread, they now oppose it 54/37.
Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment -- 74/21 -- while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition -- 71/22.
PPP polling shows a constituent trend of independent voters sliding toward Democratic sentiments on gay rights -- and the GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far-right social agenda, according to Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that they've found in other states. Voters age 45-and-up support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater -- 60/34 -- gap.
Voters in Minnesota think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, nearly mirroring the amendment tally.
"The pro-equality side is now winning on gay marriage ballot initiatives in Maryland, Maine, Minnesota, and Washington," said Debnam. "The landscape has changed significantly since Barack Obama announced his support for gay marriage."
PPP surveyed 973 Minnesota voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.